Last Week’s Recap:
- SEC charges Bittrex and its former CEO for operating an unregistered exchange, broker, and clearing agency.
- Gary Gensler didn’t explicitly answer “if ETH is a security or commodity” when testifying before the House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services.
- SUI main net will officially launch on May 3, 2023.
- Binance Launchpad announced the 31st project – Open Campus (EDU).
Legacy Markets – DXY
Last week we mentioned there’s a high probability of fake breakdowns under 102. This actually occurred after that we saw crypto rejecting at 30k relatively fast. DXY hasn’t actually started moving upward yet but is still consolidating on support. If it drips down again to 100± we think it’s likely the breakdown is real. For now, the range is still 102-107 area.
Legacy Markets – VIX
VIX is hovering around the long-term trend it has been establishing. Markets already saw an initial de-risk in anticipation of a pop.
BTC Weekly View
As mentioned last week, BTC was at a large inflection together with legacy big tech, starting its earnings season – we saw an initial rejection of the 2021 lows. For now, BTC will likely be slow till after tech earning season. Also, note that the indexes in legacy markets are at large inflection points. This is making crypto more sensitive to their movements.
ETH Weekly View
As mentioned last week, one scenario was BTC rejecting the 2021 support and this would give ETH the scenario of confirming acceptance within the 2021 range. This is actually what is playing out right now. We think if ETH confirms the range we’ll see the start of a new bull market in NFT which has been capitulating and seeing extreme negative sentiment lately. To confirm this ETH needs to hold >1720 on a weekly close basis.
ETH/BTC should start picking up more if our range acceptance is to play out. For now, we just saw the re-risk rise in ETH after the Shapella upgrade. Since then it has again been muted. The safe play is to still wait for ETH to break either side of this range this will give a way cleaner and higher momentum play.
TOTAL2 – USD Market Strength
TOTAL2 was rejected at the same spot as BTC. Some select alts are still building higher lows every dip which means they’re outperforming the market (as mentioned last week). We’d still suggest keeping those monitored while the majority are still bleeding lower or just not moving at all.
TOTAL2BTC – BTC Market Strength
TOTAL2/BTC is seeing the same muted follow-through as ETH/BTC. Consolidation on/ around the lows is never ideal. This seems to indicate that the majority of altcoins still have no relative strength and are likely in no man’s land till BTC finds major reaction points. In the meantime, for the majority, we expect slow bleeding till this occurs. (Note the difference with NFTs that are more in tune with ETH)
- The market is looking if ETH can hold the 2021 range lows, while BTC has initially rejected it.
- Large tech earnings season is on its way, so far all have had bad reactions (NFLX, TSLA).
- DXY had a fake breakdown last week, afterwards, crypto saw a rapid de-risk from resistance.
- NFTs look primed to restart a new cycle with extremely negative sentiment and blur farming coming to an end on May 1st.
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any digital assets or other financial products
This post is prepared by Kairon Labs Traders:
Joshua van de Kerckhove, Patrick Li, and Charles Belford.