Last Week’s Recap:
- U.S. GDP rose at 1.1% in Q1, below an estimated 2%.
- U.S. Core PCE rose 0.3% in March, signaling sticky inflation pressure.
- Bybit will require at least level 1 KYC from May 8th.
- Binance US terminated the Voyager purchase deal.
- Magic Eden launched NFT AMM pools.
- Michelin will launch NFT series “Michelin 3xplorer Club”.
- Binance introduced SUI on Binance Launchpool as the 33rd project.
Legacy Markets – DXY
DXY is still grinding on the lows of the range, with multiple wicks forming to the downside. A larger move is nearing ever closer. If DXY manages to go up to 107 from here, we’d expect some further derisking/ consolidation in crypto. If DXY actually breaks lower, it will accelerate everything higher.
Legacy Markets – VIX
VIX also broke its long-term trend. It could still keep stalling in this zone this should give room for risk assets to go higher if DXY breaks down. If DXY starts going up we’d expect VIX to also increase again. Equities are at a large inflection point so some increase in volatility makes sense.
BTC Weekly View
BTC is still consolidating under the 2021 support. For now, it’s in no man’s land. Trying to figure out if it’ll correlate to Gold or tech stocks. There’s a lot going on we think if equities actually leave this area upwards that the crypto indecision will come to an end and we see stronger price action again.
ETH Weekly View
ETH is floating on the 2021 support. We think there are still possibilities for deeper tests in the 1700 area or even wick action into the 1600s. If that would hold it would confirm ETH price acceptance back in the range. This could also kickstart further NFT strong price action.
ETH/BTC is still trading within the range. For ETH outperformance, we’re still waiting for it to clear this range upwards. Leaving this range purely from the time duration will start a multi-year out/underperformance for ETH relative to BTC depending on the direction.
TOTAL2 – USD Market Strength
TOTAL2 is also stuck under the 2021 support. The price action is getting quite tight so we’d expect upticks in volatility soon.
TOTAL2BTC – BTC Market Strength
TOTAL2/BTC is still weak. With the expected increase in volatility in BTC, alts will likely get some more beating. If the volatility would be positive in price appreciation, we do think alts will start catching up again as they’ve been consolidating for quite a while now.
- Equities will lead the next move. Need to monitor if SP500 can leave the range. If it does we’d expect crypto to play catch up.
- PEPE takes crypto by storm. Things like PEPE don’t happen in real bear regimes so there’s definitely an appetite for risk in crypto. Once PEPE is finished it’s important to observe if we see a trickle-down effect into new coins.
- SUI launching on the 3rd of May with multiple exchanges announcing listing, including Binance.
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any digital assets or other financial products
This post is prepared by Kairon Labs Traders:
Joshua van de Kerckhove, and Patrick Li